OPINION: Now what? The Senate just rammed through with zero republican support, a bill that will raise taxes dramatically on all of us working folks, more than double the size of the IRS and is the most aggressive climate change legislation ever passed. This was done three months before a midterm election in which democrats are facing possibly its worst defeat in history. So, after all these months, the democrats now pass what they threatened to pass and should have at the beginning of 2021 when republicans were stunned by defeat, and the country was not paying attention like they are now. Why? Either this is their legacy to screw us all in the worst possible way and try to get out of it by “blaming republicans” next year when they take power. You know, the best defense is an offense. Or do the democrats have their stuff down so well, they are not worrying about elections anymore? Do they know something coming in November that we the general public do not? Maybe. Maybe not. We’ll see in three months though.

Yeah it was a hot week last week and especially the week before. It was a hot July, record in some locations, but a lot of places that have monthly heat records from 1980, 1988, 1995, 2012… those records are still standing. Some by very comfortable margins.  So what’s the big emergency??? Could it be Biden’s poll numbers are below freezing??? I’ve seen as low as 31 percent! That’s cold! So I’m going to go once again back to my roots as a Meteorologist. I’ve been one for 25 years. We’re always wrong to some people. If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard “You have the greatest job in the world. You get to be wrong xx% of the time and still have a job” I would be independently wealthy. But yet when climate stories come up, we continue to accept it as Gospel. Way too many of us. I’ve been guilty of this at times. Is it because it came from CNN? Because “government experts” said so? Here’s something for you to consider: The two most popular words for a news anchor or reporter to use are “experts say”.

When tornado warnings get issued in Upstate NY before NOON, it’s a head snapping event. It does not happen often. I had intended to get this blog out earlier this morning but life got in the way and then a tornado warning (1045-1115 AM) went up for Wyoming and Livingston Counties in Upstate NY. Based on what I saw on the Buffalo Doppler Radar, it was a legit warning. Based off my vast experience with Upstate NY weather (and New England Weather) I’m telling you this is a day to be HEADS UP! It’s only a marginal to slight risk, but for Rochester, Syracuse, Utica, Binghamton, Albany, Poughkeepsie, Saratoga, into western and central New England from Springfield to Boston… HEADS UP! Any storms that come through this afternoon and evening have potential for anything… 60+ MPH winds. Hail. A few tornadoes. This is a day you take any watch or especially any WARNINGS from the National Weather Service seriously! Based off the storms rocking WNY as of this writing, you need to adjust plans to the east this afternoon and evening. Have a radar app, weather app, and ways to get warnings where you are at.

Today was a tough day to pick a “headline” for the nation. 105-110F in Oklahoma? Maybe. 5-10 inches of rain and flooding all over St. Louis, MO? Maybe. What about the 90-100 degree heat in the Pacific NW including Portland and Seattle? After last year, 90-100 there doesn’t hit as hard anymore. Chamber of commerce weather with low humidity across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and the Northeast US today? Even in mid summer these days can be typical. So looking at the national weather map what is the biggest thing that stands out as, WAIT A MINUTE?

It’s July. It’s the dog days of summer. It’s hot. It’s going to remain hot or get hotter in many parts of the nation. Most of the temperatures you are seeing on the map today are at or above normal pretty much nationwide. That’s what the CPC called for a week ago and it has come to pass. Really no part of the nation over the next few days at least will be in “jacket weather” mode.

They boy who cried climate change...

A weak cold front is moving its way across the northern tier of states, bringing only a temporary break in the heat and humidity. As this cold front is moving through this hot and humid airmass, it triggered an MCS over Kentucky and Tennessee overnight, which is raking them as of this writing this morning at 7 AM. This complex of storms will come off the Appalachians and hit Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and possibly into Virginia later today. A SLIGHT RISK exists here with straight line wind damage the primary severe threat. Frequent lightning and flash flooding from torrential downpours is also a higher risk than the usual summertime fare today. Follow this trough up the Appalachians into the Northeast, and this is what kept some awake in WNY with thunderstorms overnight. These storms will refire in the heat and humidity quickly today from eastern New York into New England, stretching on down into the big cities. Again same threats here as down south. The hail and tornado threats are not zero but very close to it.

The heat that has been broiling Texas and Oklahoma the last few weeks reached its peak yesterday with many locations reaching if not exceeding 110F. These numbers are not seen most years, and in fact, have only been seen a handful of times since 1980. 1988, 1996, 2010, 2012 stand out as examples of when climate “went wild” like this. Add 2022 to this list and the mix for sure. The fact Dallas hit 109 yesterday and may not break 100 tomorrow is “big news” in that part of the nation. Why is the heat wave taking a pause in the southern Plains??? Because it’s reaching out across the rest of the nation. Nearly all corners of the nation will feel the heat today. Northwest? Northeast? Great Lakes? Yep. It’s gonna get hot. Anywhere east of the Rockies is almost a lock to reach 90 today. Even on the Canadian Border. This heat is locked in for the next several days, with only some relief across the northern tier of states expected over the weekend and into next week. Here in the Southeast where I am based, it’s literally just the beginning. We take our shots at 100 this weekend then back off some next week but not much. Remember cold fronts don’t get that far south easily in mid summer. So it’s mid summer. It’s hot. It’s above normal. It’s the dog days of summer. Across the northern tier of states that shiver under months of cold, clouds and snow, these are the days you’ve longed for and waited for. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT! Safely of course. One thing I’m sure you have seen in recent days have been a major surge in climate stories. ABC just had a huge one this morning about how the heat is our fault. We are not the only ones struggling with heat. In England and France, ALL TIME RECORD HEAT just hit there over the last few days. London, a city that rarely sees 80s even in summer, much less the 90s, HIT 104 ON MONDAY. That’s not a misprint. It sounds like what happened in the Pacific NW last summer with records being not just broken but obliterated, just happened in NW Europe. And despite the fact it’s been between medium well and well done across the south central US, it still has not reached the benchmark of all heatwaves: 1980. Back when “Global Cooling” and the new ice age were all the talk. I have a lot to opine on and will do so soon. Be on the lookout! Meteorologist Rich Lupia

It has been hot in the southern Plains the last few days. Few weeks. Few months! Go back to May and it seems like more days than not have threatened to break or in most cases, have broken 100F. Today is “level up” day. We’re going not just for 110F but INTO the 110s today across the plains of Oklahoma and Texas. Even DFW has a good shot at 110. When we start talking heat like this, even in Mid July, we are at or near record territory. The all time hottest days are honestly only a few degrees away from these numbers that are on the board for today. Stay cool. Stay inside. Grin and bear it because it only gets cooler from here. Across the northern US away from the heat dome, the Thunderstorms will be rolling from Minnesota through the Great Lakes to Upstate NY and New England today. Not the washout it was yesterday in the Northeast but still the threat for afternoon and evening storms are there. The temps are going up as well. The heat dome peaking in the south central US today will break off towards the east and start to bring a lot more 90s (with some low 100s) east of the Mississippi over the next few days. It’s the Dog Days of Summer. Grab some ice and enjoy!

There are not many days in mid summer when you can call a day a “washout”, but today would be one of those days. Most locations from New England, through Upstate NY into Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and later this afternoon and evening into the bigger cities along the coast, will deal with hours upon hours of rain. Some of the rain could be heavy at times. It will be a good soaking rain. Areas trending towards drought, particularly New England, western NY, western PA into the eastern Ohio Valley will not have the developing drought wiped out in a day. But this rain will help. Severe weather threats due to the widespread nature of the rain, and the limited amount of sunshine in which to pop off convective thunderstorms, will be limited. The Southeast into the south central US will continue to be HAZY HOT AND HUMID. West of the Mississippi is the best chance of seeing 100+ temperatures, this time getting all the way up into South Dakota. The heat dome will continue to sit and spin over the Great Plains for the next several days, settling south over the next few days into Oklahoma and Texas. Some points in Texas will threaten if not beat out 110 F. Thankfully the humidity is not as high as it could be.

Rarely does the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) come out with a map that basically says the entire country will be above average temperatures… but it just did that in the 8-14 day temperature outlook today. Unless you are south of Phoenix or north of Seattle, which is less than 1% of the US population, probably less than 0.5%, everybody will be warm. Above normal. And not just above normal from when you were growing up but above the 1991-2020 normal temperatures, which are the current climate standards. Compare these to the 1951-1980 climate standards or the 1961-1990 climate standards and there will definitely be anywhere from 1-3 degrees higher at least. The 60s and 70s had a lot of cool years in there, not just in winter but all year round. Regardless, we aren’t going to die. We aren’t going to fry. Well, unless you are in Texas!

Before we get to the details of today and beyond, a quick note about yesterday. Only reason I know this is because it was close to where I grew up and I follow the weather (and Meteorologists there) closely… a thunderstorm turned severe and whacked suburban Syracuse yesterday afternoon at rush hour. A microburst (what it appeared to be) blew through the SW suburbs of the ‘Cuse, hitting Marcellus particularly hard. Large trees down. Unclear as to any injuries or fatalities, although Dave Allen from WSYR called the storms this morning “deadly”, I’ve yet to see reports confirming this as of this writing at 9 AM 7/14. This just goes to show you folks, when I mention SEVERE WEATHER. Anything from a SLIGHT RISK, it’s for a REASON. Not everyone will see this type of storm, but some will. Those that do, it’s a major interruption. If not worse. Straight line winds are just as strong as twisting tornadic winds. I cannot make this point enough. 75 MPH+ winds are… 75+ MPH winds… will knock things down and will hurt people. Simple truth. End of story.