It has been hot in the southern Plains the last few days. Few weeks. Few months! Go back to May and it seems like more days than not have threatened to break or in most cases, have broken 100F. Today is “level up” day. We’re going not just for 110F but INTO the 110s today across the plains of Oklahoma and Texas. Even DFW has a good shot at 110. When we start talking heat like this, even in Mid July, we are at or near record territory. The all time hottest days are honestly only a few degrees away from these numbers that are on the board for today. Stay cool. Stay inside. Grin and bear it because it only gets cooler from here. Across the northern US away from the heat dome, the Thunderstorms will be rolling from Minnesota through the Great Lakes to Upstate NY and New England today. Not the washout it was yesterday in the Northeast but still the threat for afternoon and evening storms are there. The temps are going up as well. The heat dome peaking in the south central US today will break off towards the east and start to bring a lot more 90s (with some low 100s) east of the Mississippi over the next few days. It’s the Dog Days of Summer. Grab some ice and enjoy!

There are not many days in mid summer when you can call a day a “washout”, but today would be one of those days. Most locations from New England, through Upstate NY into Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and later this afternoon and evening into the bigger cities along the coast, will deal with hours upon hours of rain. Some of the rain could be heavy at times. It will be a good soaking rain. Areas trending towards drought, particularly New England, western NY, western PA into the eastern Ohio Valley will not have the developing drought wiped out in a day. But this rain will help. Severe weather threats due to the widespread nature of the rain, and the limited amount of sunshine in which to pop off convective thunderstorms, will be limited. The Southeast into the south central US will continue to be HAZY HOT AND HUMID. West of the Mississippi is the best chance of seeing 100+ temperatures, this time getting all the way up into South Dakota. The heat dome will continue to sit and spin over the Great Plains for the next several days, settling south over the next few days into Oklahoma and Texas. Some points in Texas will threaten if not beat out 110 F. Thankfully the humidity is not as high as it could be.

Rarely does the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) come out with a map that basically says the entire country will be above average temperatures… but it just did that in the 8-14 day temperature outlook today. Unless you are south of Phoenix or north of Seattle, which is less than 1% of the US population, probably less than 0.5%, everybody will be warm. Above normal. And not just above normal from when you were growing up but above the 1991-2020 normal temperatures, which are the current climate standards. Compare these to the 1951-1980 climate standards or the 1961-1990 climate standards and there will definitely be anywhere from 1-3 degrees higher at least. The 60s and 70s had a lot of cool years in there, not just in winter but all year round. Regardless, we aren’t going to die. We aren’t going to fry. Well, unless you are in Texas!

Before we get to the details of today and beyond, a quick note about yesterday. Only reason I know this is because it was close to where I grew up and I follow the weather (and Meteorologists there) closely… a thunderstorm turned severe and whacked suburban Syracuse yesterday afternoon at rush hour. A microburst (what it appeared to be) blew through the SW suburbs of the ‘Cuse, hitting Marcellus particularly hard. Large trees down. Unclear as to any injuries or fatalities, although Dave Allen from WSYR called the storms this morning “deadly”, I’ve yet to see reports confirming this as of this writing at 9 AM 7/14. This just goes to show you folks, when I mention SEVERE WEATHER. Anything from a SLIGHT RISK, it’s for a REASON. Not everyone will see this type of storm, but some will. Those that do, it’s a major interruption. If not worse. Straight line winds are just as strong as twisting tornadic winds. I cannot make this point enough. 75 MPH+ winds are… 75+ MPH winds… will knock things down and will hurt people. Simple truth. End of story.

Hey… progress! After it broke 110 F in parts of Texas the last few days, it’s cooling off! “Cooling” is, of course, a relative term. If you consider 100-105 F as “cooler”, you would be right! I have no idea how many days in a row Texas cities have been baked this summer, but I know it’s way more than usual. This heat wave and associated heat dome, centered over Texas, will start to move northward which will allow gradually “cooler” air to move into the state along with a slightly higher threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs by this weekend into next week may not reach 100 F! That should hopefully ease the strain on the power grid that ERCOT has been crowing about.

Our cold front that brought the severe weather to the Great Lakes yesterday afternoon and evening is marching towards the east. Thunderstorms are already firing up and this afternoon and evening, the threat for severe weather and straight line damaging winds will be high. The biggest threats will be Eastern NY, Western New England, eastern PA, NJ, Maryland, Delaware, the Virginia’s and into the Cumberland Gap. It’s a wide area under severe threat. It’s also a non tornadic severe weather threat so more people tend to not take as seriously. Why should you take just as seriously? Because wind is wind! It doesn’t matter if 75 MPH winds come as a weak tornado… or as a microburst or a bow echo. 75 MPH is 75 MPH. Hurricane force winds will do damage wherever they occur. While this will be localized within storms with torrential rains and frequent cloud to ground lightning, a general “slight” severe weather threat should not be taken any more or less serious that other severe weather threats. If anything, these ultimately impact MORE people than tornado threats, which are even more localized than just wind threats.

Thunderstorms are a part of summer. In some areas it’s the dominant weather feature. Here in the Carolina’s a front came down from the north, the same front that brought chamber of commerce weather conditions across the Northeast. It stalled and it stormed. And stormed. And stormed. And stormed. All I can say is this: Any drought that was developing in the Southeast US, particularly in the Carolinas, got mostly if not completely washed away this weekend.

Organized severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, torrential downpours and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, will develop this afternoon

We are back in our Greenville studios for the foreseeable future. Until Upstate NY calls again. Which by the way… that sunshine, 70s, low humidity, jackets in the evening… and I returned to the swamp! As I expected yesterday I was playing “outrun” with the storms. Some storms did get us but the worst of the severe storms and the ultimate MCS that formed, I stayed JUST ahead of. Lots of wind damage yesterday.

I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July holiday weekend! We enjoyed ours in the natural air conditioning of Upstate NY with afternoon highs mainly in the 70s… weather more typical of Easter or Halloween in the Upstate of South Carolina. With a long days drive to get back to our standard heat and humidity, this pleasant weather across the Northeast we will certainly miss.

It will be very warm to hot and humid in the eastern half of the nation today with most locations topping out between 85-95 degrees. Lots of hazy sunshine but scattered thunderstorms will develop from the Northeast to the Ohio Valley late this afternoon and tonight. The heart of the rain and thunderstorms push through the Ohio Valley, Upstate NY and interior New England tonight, which leaves the big cities along the I-95 corridor under threat for severe weather on Saturday. Boston to Providence, Hartford, NYC, Philly, Baltimore and Washington are under threat Saturday for storms with strong damaging winds, frequent lightning and torrential downpours. If you will be around the big cities on Saturday, especially in the afternoon, this is your HEADS UP.

Across the Southeast US, the stalled out front is firing up showers and thunderstorms across Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina today.