First of all, an apology to my friends and family in my native Upstate NY… sorry about your lack of sleep due to the incredible thunderstorms (especially the lightning) that kept a lot of you awake in the middle of the night. MCS complexes do that. They love to blow up in the middle of the night. And this was your turn. Thankfully it was more of an MCS/Light show rather than a Derecho, huge mess. At least for now. Look off to your west and round two is approaching quickly. As a result, an ENHANCED RISK of severe weather, with all threats on the table (wind, hail, tornadoes) is present across Upstate NY and Pennsylvania today. The worst of the weather should be done with tonight.
This MCS/severe weather threat is following a strong jet stream between a strong cutoff low in Canada and a strong high pressure, or heat dome, which is literally over my head this morning in the Upstate of South Carolina. Greenville hit 100 F yesterday for the first time in a decade. If the extended models are right, a ton of records could go down in the next week or so. More on that in a moment.
The HEAT DOME which is over the Southeast today will stay overhead for one more day today, then begin to shift back to the west tomorrow. As a strong dip in the jet stream takes over the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic states, the heat dome won’t be able to stay where it is. A much cooler Father’s Day weekend is expected in the eastern US, particularly the areas mentioned. In the Southeast and Ohio Valley, it will remain hot but it will back off to more seasonable levels by Father’s Day. The 100+ degree temps will rebuild across the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley this weekend, before heading back east of the Mississippi next week, particularly next Tuesday and next Wednesday. This is ROUND 2 of the heatwave. All indications are as of right now, Round 2 could be worse than Round 1. Potentially a lot worse.
The Euro is the most accurate long-range model (7-10 days) that we have. It’s been that way for 25+ years. The GFS long since lagged behind but has made strides to catch up in recent years. Though the GFS is better, the Euro still has the edge. All I’m saying is this: I hope the Euro is WRONG. Because the Euro is RIGHT, we are in for the worst heatwave in the Southeast US potentially ever. And every run of the Euro has been consistent on it. The first run or two we laughed at. Now that it’s into Days 6 and 7, Meteorologists here in the Southeast are paying attention. And like me, going *GULP*.
If the Euro is right, nearly every all-time record in Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama would be in jeopardy of falling next Tuesday and/or next Wednesday. 100+ everywhere. Potentially even at elevation in the southern Appalachians (Asheville’s all-time is 97 F and that would fall per the Euro). The Piedmont and the Fall Line areas could widespread get into the 110s. That’s right. 110s. Not 100s, 110s. THIS DOES NOT COUNT HUMIDITY. I don’t care what anyone says. This is a potentially major story developing for next week and it could be unlike anything anyone has ever seen. I’m sure the “it’s all your fault” climate change stories are lined up ready to fly on a dime. The heat is made worse by us. Yes, average temperatures are going up, but extreme events like this, if it happens, are one in 50 to 150-year events that happen regardless of our activity. We may make it a few degrees worse, but we cannot stop it. It took a decade to hit 100 F ONCE in Greenville. And that’s with a ton more people moving in and the heat island expanding. The Pacific NW had its turn at all-time record-breaking heat last year. After the 110s last June, now they can’t buy a 75 to 80-degree bright sunny day. Yellowstone flooded badly. It’s all cyclical. And it could be the Southeast’s turn this time. Regardless, do your best to stay weather aware, limit your exposure outside and limit your energy use as much as reasonably possible. I’ll stay on top of this story.