2024, or at least the process of choosing the next GOP nominee will be here before we know it.
Shortly after the midterm elections, we will start to see 2024 Republican hopefuls begin declaring their intentions to run for president as soon as early 2023. As of this writing, the 45th President, Donald J. Trump, is still solidly popular among Republican voters. Many assume that if he were to declare his intention to run again, it would be his nomination for the taking. However, I am going to go out on a limb on what Trump’s plans are. I believe that Trump will ultimately not run in 2024.
Between new and ongoing investigations on the documents stored at Mar-a-Lago, the events of January 6th, and a little something called Father Time, either Trump will not seek to run on his own accord for the sake of his own mental, physical, and family health, or even if he does decide to run, mechanisms will be put in place as a result of the aforementioned investigations to stop Trump running again, by his very own party.
As popular as Trump still is with the GOP voter base, the GOP party establishment is done with Trump. They want to move on, even if it were to mean sacrificing the 2024 election to put in a less popular candidate instead.
The common talk, if Trump were to not run in 2024, has always been this: Ron DeSantis would be the perfect pick to inherit the MAGA mantle post-Trump. DeSantis has carved out his own niche as governor of Florida and has become wildly popular among many nationwide for sticking to his guns and not folding.
I’ve often seen people refer to DeSantis as a “mini-Trump” or a “more polished” version of Trump with a lot of the same policy beliefs but less of the rawness of non-politician Trump.
Not a single governor in the United States has stood up more to the authoritarian COVID agenda or the woke classroom agenda than DeSantis has. It would seem DeSantis would be the proper heir to the MAGA throne without Trump in the way for 2024.
It’s not so simple as that though. As much as MAGA voters would love the prospect of DeSantis in 2024, harkening back to that GOP establishment, they might not like it too much though.
Although a DeSantis run would likely be an easier pill to swallow for the GOP establishment than a third Trump attempt, I believe that they want to cleanse MAGA-type candidates completely and DeSantis would be a casualty of this. The neocon Republicans are desperate to regain control over the party they ruled over for decades and they would gladly also take out DeSantis, who is not one of them.
Without Trump, I see three possible lanes for GOP candidates. By early 2024 as primary victories and losses have already started, we will see three candidates left standing. One of them will be the MAGA candidate, that will be Ron DeSantis. The second will be the establishment neocon/donor-class candidate. That second person will be someone along the lines of Mike Pence, Liz Cheney, or Nikki Haley. Which one I don’t know, but let’s figure there is a solid shot of it being one of them. Finally, that third lane will need to be a hybrid. Someone not too in-your-face overt MAGA but yet someone not known to be super-establishment, someone that bridges MAGA Republicans with establishment Republicans.
In the event of a brokered convention, the only name that makes sense to me is Texas Senator Ted Cruz. I’ve been following the trajectory of Cruz for several years and whether you love him or hate him, Cruz has masterfully done an incredible job at strategically positioning himself right in the middle of MAGA-Ville and establishment-ville. During Trump’s presidency, his former rival Cruz actually turned into one of his greatest allies.
Most MAGA Republicans I know have a positive opinion of Cruz. Yet despite his association with Trump, establishment types seem to still keep Cruz in their favor, they love his educational and law pedigree, gravitas on Constitutional issues, and demeanor more in line with how a president would traditionally behave.
Cruz has one other plus in that GOP history would be on his side with the GOP seemingly having a tradition of more often than not always nominating the person who was their most recent primary runner-up. That was of course Cruz in 2016, second only to Trump.
So much has happened since then, so it may be easy to forget that bit of history. In the likely event Cruz runs again in 2024, he will not only be one of the three finalists from his party but through the workings of being the right guy in the right place at the right time, he might be Mr. Right for “the right” as they try and bridge a divide in their own party. Ted Cruz has always wanted to be the president and he may very well make that happen.
The biggest question though still remains, should he keep the beard, or lose it?
