HomeElectionsProgressive Politico Rates Senate Midterms 'Toss Up', Leaning Towards 54-46 GOP Win

Progressive Politico Rates Senate Midterms ‘Toss Up’, Leaning Towards 54-46 GOP Win

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With just 4 days to go, I’ve combed through the polls, studied the charts, obsessed over the data, and all roads are still leaning towards a GOP Senate Win. Even progressive Politico and several other left-leaning media outlets agree, and they aren’t afraid to say it.

The Republicans’ path to the Senate majority continues to strengthen ahead of Tuesday’s election, and now includes a state that Joe Biden carried by 7 points just two years ago, according to Politico.

The Senate race in New Hampshire is moving from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up” in POLITICO’s Election Forecast — a reflection of the tightening in that campaign in recent weeks. While Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan still has a narrow lead over Republican Don Bolduc, she is no longer a significant favorite.

The overall battle for the Senate majority continues to be a “Toss Up.” But the range of plausible outcomes now includes a sizable Republican majority: A sweep of the six “Toss Up” races would give the GOP 54 seats.

And if the two parties split the “Toss Up” races evenly, Republicans would still win a one-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats are banking on the power of incumbency and lingering unpopularity of some Republican nominees to overcome an increasingly rough political environment for the party in power.

New Hampshire is one of three Senate races changing in our latest ratings update, in addition to four governor’s races and 13 House races — with almost all of the shifts going in Republicans’ direction. The political environment in the closing days of the race continues to move toward the GOP.

=> READ POLITICO’S PLAY-BY-PLAY ANALYSIS

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