The big story in the next few days, by far, will be the state of Florida, dealing with what should become TROPICAL STORM ALEX. This would be the first named storm of the 2022 hurricane season, and also a rare one since this was HURRICANE AGATHA in the eastern Pacific before it got torn apart by the mountains of Mexico. It’s over the NW Caribbean and the Straits of Florida today and with just a little shear and 80+ degree ocean water below, it’s got just enough time to strengthen and dump 6-12 inches of rain across Cuba, central and southern Florida. If you are in Florida, especially south of I-4, no beach weather for the next 3 days and I’m sorry. If you are in the Gulf Coast region, or in the Southeast anywhere from or south of Cape Hatteras, it will not be a time to go into the water Sunday through Tuesday because of the high rip current risk. Besides gusty winds and tons of rain, there will be localized flooding concerns. But this is not the storm to run from. This is a hunker down and deals with the rain situation. Even if top winds do jump to 50-70 MPH, it should not have time to go into Hurricane strength and damage mode. More flooding and annoyance than anything else.
Slight risk of severe storms across the high plains this afternoon and this evening. Honestly here, because the severe risk is in such bone dry areas, I’m more concerned about the wildfire risk from lightning strikes more than anything else. From eastern New Mexico to eastern Colorado, SE Wyoming, and western Nebraska, heads up for this.
The temperature trends are becoming clear for next week and even into the following week. It’s going to be cooler than normal across the Great Lakes, northern Mississippi Valley, and the northern Great Plains. The heat shifts west of the divide covering all the western US, with a finger of it stretching east across Texas and into the Southeast US, including Florida and the Carolinas. This is the pattern we are getting stuck on after ALEX this weekend. If you want the heat, head west or head south. If you like natural air conditioning, anywhere from the Ohio Valley NORTHBOUND, or north of the MASON/DIXON line and you’ll be fine. It will be good sleeping weather. Enjoy!