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It’s not a big threat, but enough to mention it. As another reinforcing cold front is being pushed into the Southeast on a NW flow aloft… and running into the typical hazy, hot, and humid you find in the Southeast US during the month of August… we have a boundary, a clash, and the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The bast chance will be along the 85 corridor from Atlanta, right through our backyard in the Upstate of South Carolina, up to the Charlotte area with a SLIGHT risk in the Carolinas. Marginal risks from Atlanta westbound along I-20 into Mississippi and north on 85 into the Raleigh/Durham area. Straight line winds are the biggest threat, some large hail possible, and an isolated quick spin up tornado or two are not out of the question. Not widespread, but a day you want to have your weather apps ON and be aware what’s going on.
The Dog Days of August have been in full effect this last week. All across America from the Canadian border to the Mexican border and everywhere in between, it’s been summer. Like the dead of summer. Air you can wear. Melting as you walk outside for any length of time. Getting away to the lake, the pool, the beach, anywhere to cool off. While temperatures during the day won’t cool off all that much, because it’s the first half of August, the dew point, the temperature at which water vapor will condense, is going much lower soon east of the Mississippi. And if you are in the Carolinas and the Southeast like me, wondering if relief will get this far south. Good news: It will!
When tornado warnings get issued in Upstate NY before NOON, it’s a head snapping event. It does not happen often. I had intended to get this blog out earlier this morning but life got in the way and then a tornado warning (1045-1115 AM) went up for Wyoming and Livingston Counties in Upstate NY. Based on what I saw on the Buffalo Doppler Radar, it was a legit warning. Based off my vast experience with Upstate NY weather (and New England Weather) I’m telling you this is a day to be HEADS UP! It’s only a marginal to slight risk, but for Rochester, Syracuse, Utica, Binghamton, Albany, Poughkeepsie, Saratoga, into western and central New England from Springfield to Boston… HEADS UP! Any storms that come through this afternoon and evening have potential for anything… 60+ MPH winds. Hail. A few tornadoes. This is a day you take any watch or especially any WARNINGS from the National Weather Service seriously! Based off the storms rocking WNY as of this writing, you need to adjust plans to the east this afternoon and evening. Have a radar app, weather app, and ways to get warnings where you are at.
Today was a tough day to pick a “headline” for the nation. 105-110F in Oklahoma? Maybe. 5-10 inches of rain and flooding all over St. Louis, MO? Maybe. What about the 90-100 degree heat in the Pacific NW including Portland and Seattle? After last year, 90-100 there doesn’t hit as hard anymore. Chamber of commerce weather with low humidity across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and the Northeast US today? Even in mid summer these days can be typical. So looking at the national weather map what is the biggest thing that stands out as, WAIT A MINUTE?
It’s July. It’s the dog days of summer. It’s hot. It’s going to remain hot or get hotter in many parts of the nation. Most of the temperatures you are seeing on the map today are at or above normal pretty much nationwide. That’s what the CPC called for a week ago and it has come to pass. Really no part of the nation over the next few days at least will be in “jacket weather” mode.
A weak cold front is moving its way across the northern tier of states, bringing only a temporary break in the heat and humidity. As this cold front is moving through this hot and humid airmass, it triggered an MCS over Kentucky and Tennessee overnight, which is raking them as of this writing this morning at 7 AM. This complex of storms will come off the Appalachians and hit Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and possibly into Virginia later today. A SLIGHT RISK exists here with straight line wind damage the primary severe threat. Frequent lightning and flash flooding from torrential downpours is also a higher risk than the usual summertime fare today. Follow this trough up the Appalachians into the Northeast, and this is what kept some awake in WNY with thunderstorms overnight. These storms will refire in the heat and humidity quickly today from eastern New York into New England, stretching on down into the big cities. Again same threats here as down south. The hail and tornado threats are not zero but very close to it.
The heat that has been broiling Texas and Oklahoma the last few weeks reached its peak yesterday with many locations reaching if not exceeding 110F. These numbers are not seen most years, and in fact, have only been seen a handful of times since 1980. 1988, 1996, 2010, 2012 stand out as examples of when climate “went wild” like this. Add 2022 to this list and the mix for sure. The fact Dallas hit 109 yesterday and may not break 100 tomorrow is “big news” in that part of the nation. Why is the heat wave taking a pause in the southern Plains???
Because it’s reaching out across the rest of the nation. Nearly all corners of the nation will feel the heat today. Northwest? Northeast? Great Lakes? Yep. It’s gonna get hot. Anywhere east of the Rockies is almost a lock to reach 90 today. Even on the Canadian Border. This heat is locked in for the next several days, with only some relief across the northern tier of states expected over the weekend and into next week.
Here in the Southeast where I am based, it’s literally just the beginning. We take our shots at 100 this weekend then back off some next week but not much. Remember cold fronts don’t get that far south easily in mid summer.
So it’s mid summer. It’s hot. It’s above normal. It’s the dog days of summer. Across the northern tier of states that shiver under months of cold, clouds and snow, these are the days you’ve longed for and waited for. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT! Safely of course.
One thing I’m sure you have seen in recent days have been a major surge in climate stories. ABC just had a huge one this morning about how the heat is our fault. We are not the only ones struggling with heat. In England and France, ALL TIME RECORD HEAT just hit there over the last few days. London, a city that rarely sees 80s even in summer, much less the 90s, HIT 104 ON MONDAY. That’s not a misprint. It sounds like what happened in the Pacific NW last summer with records being not just broken but obliterated, just happened in NW Europe. And despite the fact it’s been between medium well and well done across the south central US, it still has not reached the benchmark of all heatwaves: 1980. Back when “Global Cooling” and the new ice age were all the talk. I have a lot to opine on and will do so soon. Be on the lookout! Meteorologist Rich Lupia